000 AXNT20 KNHC 140552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 51.2W AT 14/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 685 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 47W-54W. TROPICAL STORM JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 28.0W AT 14/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 215 NM W-NW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 26W-31W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N74W ACROSS E CUBA AND THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N80W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO W-NW AT 9 TO 13 KT. SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-23N INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 72W-84W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 12N-14N. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO THAT COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...ITCZ... THE MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN WITH NO ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N E OF 44W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR VERMILION BAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE E GULF FROM 25N-28N E OF 84W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST. A WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE MOVED WESTWARD TO OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 93W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AN UPPER INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO 17N77W AND A SECOND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W TO 21N86W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE IGOR AND TROPICAL STORM JULIA ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE TROPICAL ATLC TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO 27N74W. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N69W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. DRY AIR IS TRAILING THE FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE CENTRAL ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO 31N51W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N57W TO 27N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA SURROUNDING HURRICANE IGOR AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N27W TO JUST NE OF HURRICANE IGOR NEAR 24N40W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF AFRICA ALONG 21N TO 23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW