000 AXNT20 KNHC 130612 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 13/0300 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 44.4W. IGOR IS MOVING WESTWARD 11 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 825 NM TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 49W...AND FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JULIA AT 13/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA AT 13/0600 UTC IS NEAR 14.0N 24.0W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. JULIA IS ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N73W...ABOUT 210 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 13N77W AND 11N83W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA WITHIN 270 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO COSTA RICA ALONG 10N83W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... JAMAICA...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 13/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP. ...THE ITCZ... 9N21W 8N27W 7N23W...14N40W 12N47W 11N53W 13N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN FLORIDA AND/OR AROUND THE STATE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 29N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF 31N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N78W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA/ GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N83.5W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND EAST TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH 31N77W INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER NOW IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 30N107W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND COVERS MEXICO...THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...AND ARIZONA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND 110W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 27N109W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 105W AND 106W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WEATHER NEWS IS DOMINATED BY THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N73W...WITH A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W...RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N54W TO 23N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N58W TO 18N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N59W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 29N55W 28N62W 27N70W 26N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM A 36N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N21W...TO A 28N35W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 21N32W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N34W TO 30N40W TO 29N48W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT