000 AXNT20 KNHC 120604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AT 12/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 12/0300 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 42.5W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 1100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 51W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N68W...ABOUT 170 NM TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 20 KT DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N67.5W...AND 17N70.5W. OTHER COMPARATIVELY SMALLER RAINSHOWERS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N17W 8N20W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY TURN INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 12/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 7N17W 7N23W 12N34W 12N45W 11N52W 14N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N103W IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO TOWARD ITS WESTERN COAST. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 102W AND THE WESTERN COAST OF THE COUNTRY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE FROM 16N99W AT THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST...TO 18N100W TO 20N101W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE AREA FROM NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAKENING RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 82W FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 30N...NEAR A WEAK INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 82W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N68W...ABOUT 170 NM TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... IS THE MOST NEWSWORTHY WEATHER FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE ENDING AT 12/0000 UTC WAS 1.60 INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 18N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA THAT IS ALONG 80W...TO 19N84W. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF GASTON. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA IN GENERAL TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N64W 25N72W TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N70W AND 29N72W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 29N72W TO 29N74W AND 30N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 30N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N52W 21N54W 26N53W. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N50W. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS CONNECTED TO THE 17N52W 26N53W TROUGH ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT