000 AXNT20 KNHC 111105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR AT 11/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.1N 37.8W...MOVING WESTWARD 18 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 720 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE FORECAST TRACK MAKES IGOR A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IGOR MAY REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER ABOUT THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W... AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N63W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST OF SAINT LUCIA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. OTHER COMPARATIVELY SMALLER RAINSHOWERS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN WESTERN AFRICA ALONG 13W/14W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. NUMEROUS STRONG PRECIPITATION COVERS AFRICA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W. ...THE ITCZ... 9N16W 14N30W...13N38W 10N46W 13N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...BETWEEN 20N AND THE MEXICO BORDER WITH TEXAS. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THIS CYCLONIC CENTER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AWAY FROM THE DRY AIR...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 19N93W, A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ABOUT 540 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVING ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND WEAKENING AND BECOMING LESS APPARENT WITH TIME. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N63W AND ITS RELATED PRECIPITATION ARE THE MOST NEWSWORTHY WEATHER EVENT AT THIS MOMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 17N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W FROM 12N TO THE COAST OF CUBA. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF GASTON. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...EVEN IN PARTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA IN GENERAL TO THE WEST OF 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 13N70W TO 18N80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 26N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 31N70W...BECOMING STATIONARY...AND CONTINUING TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N74W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF GEORGIA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N59W 30N66W TO 28N75W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N47W TO 20N52W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 22W AND 35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N44W 20N49W 28N47W. POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT