000 AXNT20 KNHC 110603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR AT 11/0300 UTC IS NEAR 17.1N 34.9W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 18 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 555 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A LINE FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. OTHER COMPARATIVELY WEAKER SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N61W...IN THE SAINT VINCENT PASSAGE...JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE ISLAND OF SAINT VINCENT. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO RICO... AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO 72 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN WESTERN AFRICA ALONG 10W/11W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. NUMEROUS STRONG PRECIPITATION COVERS AFRICA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 19W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 13N23W...11N37W 10N47W 13N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W... AND FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA S OF 27N...AND OVER INLAND CUBA W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 89W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N96W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT WHERE CONVECTION IS NOTED. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 1009 MB SAINT VINCENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS RELATED PRECIPITATION ARE THE MOST NEWSWORTHY WEATHER EVENT AT THIS MOMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 18N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA IN GENERAL TO THE WEST OF 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 70W TO THE COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 76W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 28N68W AND 27N76W JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 32N71W...BECOMING STATIONARY...CONTINUING TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N76W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF GEORGIA. THE FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N60W 31N65W TO 30N70W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N47W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N44W 20N49W 27N47W. POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 14N49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT