000 AXNT20 KNHC 101143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 29.3W AT 10/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 305 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE IGOR WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS VIEWED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N30W TO 18N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 30W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N60W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N60W TO NEAR 10N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING W OR WNW NEAR 5 KT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N30W 7N36W 7N47W 8N54W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 30W-39W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 44W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 5N FROM 14W-17W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N W OF 56W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 12N E OF 8W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE MOST OF THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E ALONG 29N ACROSS THE N GULF INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 92W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-94W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N89W TO 24N91W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W TO 27N94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 86W. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-84W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W TO JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N77W ACROSS JAMAICA TO NEAR 14N78W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 75W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA S OF 13N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 65W-70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF A LINE FROM 32N62W 30N72W TO 32N77W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR 26N65W. A WEAKENING NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W SW ALONG 24N60W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N71W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N TO 44W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC AND IS ANCHORED N OF T.D. IGOR NEAR 20N28W EXTENDING AN AXIS E TO OVER W AFRICA AND W TO 50W. BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS THE T.D. IGOR IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ALSO BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IS A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N45W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ALONG 21N45W TO 26N42W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 40W-44W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM SW OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW