000 AXNT20 KNHC 100554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 28.0W AT 10/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 215 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE IGOR WITH THE CENTER UNDER THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45/60 NM RADIUS OF 17N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 28W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 30W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N60W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W ALONG THE E COAST OF TRINIDAD TO NEAR 10N61W. THIS IS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE WITH A DISTINCT CYCLONIC CURVATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR STATIONARY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N26W 7N35W 9N50W 11N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 31W-37W...WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 7N30W TO 6N40W...AND WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 44W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 RADIUS OF 5N15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE MOST OF THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST JUST S OF GALVESTON EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E ALONG 29N ACROSS THE N GULF INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 92W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N88W TO 25N90W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA E OF 90W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE FAR W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-85W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N71W TO JUST S OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N78W ACROSS JAMAICA AND E CUBA TO NEAR 22N77W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 72W-80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N FROM BERMUDA TO 76W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR 26N65W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W SW ALONG 25N60W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 13N TO 44W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC AND IS ANCHORED N OF T.D. IGOR NEAR 22N30W EXTENDING AN AXIS E TO OVER W AFRICA AND W TO 50W. BENEATH IS THE T.D. IGOR IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ALSO BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IS A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N44W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ALONG 22N42W TO 28N43W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 40W-43W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM SW OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW