000 AXNT20 KNHC 090548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 24.8W AT 09/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 60 NM S-SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING MOVING W AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IGOR REMAINS A SHEAR SYSTEM WITH THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 14N25W TO 15N29W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N25W 8N30W 10N42W 13N59W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N68W 12N76W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-45W AND S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 53W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E ALONG 30N ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES INTO THE W ATLC COVERING MOST OF THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA SW JUST N OF FORT MYERS INTO THE GULF ALONG 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24W FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 86W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 84W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA E OF 84W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED IN THE N CARIBBEAN S OF CUBA NEAR 20N84W EXTENDING N OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO S FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 85W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND S TO 17N BETWEEN 80W-86W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 81W-86W. A SMALL UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. BENEATH IS UPPER RIDGE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 71W FROM 13N ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 21N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN 67W-75W. THE ITCZ CROSSING THE S CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO COSTA RICA IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 15N61W OVER TRINIDAD TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 8N61W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES LITTLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LOW IN THE N CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 24N AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO OVER CUBA E OF 76W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 30N COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N58W SW ALONG 27N65W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE W ATLC 24N-30N W OF 67W AND THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 13N-28N BETWEEN 40W-65W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC N OF 26N ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 30N69W AND OVER BERMUDA. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N47W AND 33N39W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N50W TO 32N44W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED W AFRICA EXTENDING AN AXIS W ALONG 21N INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO 40W. BENEATH IS THE T.S. IGOR IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE AND A 1009 MB LOW JUST TO THE N-NE OF IGOR OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 20W-27W. A SECOND 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 20N32W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 36W-38W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW