000 AXNT20 KNHC 070557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 97.7W AT 07/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 9 NM S-SW OF HARLINGEN TEXAS AND ABOUT 17 NM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING N-NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUST TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATED THAT TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO ABOUT 35 NM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 56 KT. HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND FROM LAGUNA MADRE MEXICO TO JUST S OF GALVESTON TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-28N W OF 94W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS LESS ORGANIZED NOW THAT IT HAS EMERGED INTO THE E ATLC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 14.5N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 20W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 30W-44W. ...ITCZ... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N23W TO 9N30W WHILE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 53W-59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-13N E OF 13W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT REMAINS T.S. HERMINE THAT MADE LANDFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER T.S. HERMINE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS DRAWING DRY STABLE AIR S OVER THE GULF E OF HERMINE. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 15N84W IN THE E GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N TO CUBA E OF 84W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH NE TO E FLOW ALOFT W OF 77W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. THE AREA BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES IS DOMINATED BY AN ELONGATED...NARROWING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING S TO 16N77W. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 17N74W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W INTO THE W ATLC AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER CUBA TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 80W FROM OVER PANAMA TO 13N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 14N W OF PUERTO RICO COMPLIMENTS OF THE 1008 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 15N84W IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 77W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N W OF 75W. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS ALONG 24N73W 29N72W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N74W THROUGH THE WIND PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N73W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N52W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF GASTON...CENTERED ABOUT 150 NM E OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N59W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-18N W OF 59W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED W AFRICA EXTENDING AN AXIS W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 21N TO 38W. BENEATH IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N29W TO 16N31W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 17.5N BETWEEN 30W-33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW