000 AXNT20 KNHC 070027 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.8N 97.1W AT 07/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO....OR ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...MOVING NNW AT 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUST TO 65 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 95W-98W. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 94W-99W. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS BY TONIGHT...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 250 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N57W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL REMAINS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 58W-60W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 15W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 18W-24W. ...ITCZ... A MONSOON TROUGH IS S OF 20N E OF 40W TO W AFRICA. AN ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 9N40W TO 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 52W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO.. T.S. HERMINE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NE MEXICAN COAST WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO N OF THE STORM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST N OF 28N W OF 93W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA S OF 27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THUS TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN OVER JAMAICA AND CUBA BETWEEN 75W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE E CARIBBEAN HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF 67W, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E CUBA NEAR 20N74W MOVING W. THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W HAS NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT...THE REMNANTS OF GASTON TO TRAVERSE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N40W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N75W. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG 26N72W 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22N27W 16N30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N50W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 21N16W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA