000 AXNT20 KNHC 061152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS UPGRADED AT 06/0900 UTC TO TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 95.3W AT 06/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM E-SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND ABOUT 280 MI SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING N AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUST TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N94W TO 21N96W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 25W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-97W. A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N54W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL REMAINS WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM JUST W OF THE LOW NEAR 17N55W TO 22N60W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS IT MOVES W AT 10-15 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 14W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 11N16W 6N31W 9N43W 9N51W 8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 11N16W TO 19N20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 56W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE NEWLY FORMED T.S. HERMINE IN THE SW GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND INTO THE N GULF TO 28N SUPPORTING A WEAK...MEANDERING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S GEORGIA ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND SLIDELL LOUISIANA ACROSS TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR T.S.HERMINE EXTENDING AN AXIS E-NE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND S FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 87W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH E FLOW ALOFT MAINLY N OF 17N W OF 77W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE TURKS/CAICOS NEAR 21N72W. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N72W ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N INTO THE W ATLC BETWEEN 71W-78W. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW THERE ARE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO 17B84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE 1008 MB REMNANT LOW OF GASTON REMAINS A CONCERN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 77W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N W OF 74W TO THE COAST OF THE SE U.S. AND N OF 30N W OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 21N72W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 30N BETWEEN 66W-77W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N68 ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 35W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 25N52W AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY STABLE AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 23N ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SECOND SMALL UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER MOROCCO EXTENDING AN AXIS SW INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 19N28W. BENEATH IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N25W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N28W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 17N-20N AND CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 20W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW