000 AXNT20 KNHC 060551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE SURFACE LOW OFF VERACRUZ MEXICO WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN AT 06/0300 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.9N 95.0W AT 06/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 235 NM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 NM E-SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUST TO 35 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N95W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 24N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A 1009 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 450 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N52W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM THE LOW NEAR 17N52W ALONG 17N56W TO 20N59W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS IT MOVES W AT 10-15 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 12W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 8N29W 7N34W 10N48W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 13N61W TO ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N69W THEN ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OF W AFRICA FROM 14N-19N TO 20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM W AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 4N35W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 36W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE NEWLY FORMED T.D. TEN IN THE SW GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND INTO THE N GULF TO 28N SUPPORTING A WEAK...MEANDERING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR T.D.TEN EXTENDING AN AXIS E-NE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND S FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 24N94W TO NEAR 28N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S OF 25N E OF 91W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH E FLOW ALOFT MAINLY N OF 17N W OF 77W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 21N70W. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 13N67W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM 16N71W TO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N87W. THE ITCZ IS GENERATING ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 74W-80W. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TRANQUIL TONIGHT WITH THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW OF GASTON REMAINS A CONCERN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 77W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 78W TO THE COAST OF THE SE U.S. AND TO OVER THE FAR S FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 21N70W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 30N BETWEEN 65W-77W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 24N67W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 35W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 25N51W AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY STABLE AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 23N ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SECOND SMALL UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER MOROCCO EXTENDING AN AXIS SW INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 17N30W. BENEATH IS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20N23W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ISLAND TO 12N28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N22W TO 17N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW