000 AXNT20 KNHC 060007 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 550 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N51W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE W FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 52W-54W. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 1005 MB LOW OFF VERACRUZ MEXICO IS NEAR 20N96W. A TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 26N95W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 93W-99W. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA ALONG 11W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N11W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ...ITCZ... A MONSOON TROUGH IS S OF 20N E OF 30W TO W AFRICA. AN ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 8N30W TO 8N40W 12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 15W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 26W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1005 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE N GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE COAST OF E TEXAS ALONG 30N84W 28N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 84W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N96W ENHANCING CONVECTION. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THUS TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BETWEEN 70W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 80W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N68W MOVING W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF GASTON TO REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N46W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N75W. ELSEWHERE... A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N23W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N68W MOVING W... AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N41W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA