000 AXNT20 KNHC 031202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 03/1200 UTC IS NEAR 36.2N 73.6W...OR ABOUT 115 NM E-NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA OR ABOUT 345 NM S-SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. EARL IS MOVING N-NE AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 35N TO 37N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS LIKELY THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST TO MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 03/1200 UTC IS NEAR 28.5N 66.7W...OR ABOUT 250 NM TO THE S-SW OF BERMUDA. FIONA IS MOVING N AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W...WHERE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN ONE CLUSTER FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 10N21W TO 8N32W 10N38W...10N41W INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N60W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA AROUND A 24N92W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ITS ACCOMPANYING NORTH-TO-SOUTH TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS OF MEXICO IN AND ADJACENT TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 73W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. A LITTLE BIT OF AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N79W 16N80W 12N81W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 31N TO THE WEST OF 66W IS COVERED BY THE FLOW THAT IS AROUND HURRICANE EARL. THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W IS COVERED BY TROPICAL STORM FIONA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY REACHES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. THE CENTER OF THE 1008 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF GASTON IS NEAR 14N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N24W TO 32N30W BEYOND 32N40W...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 30N35W TO 26N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT