000 AXNT20 KNHC 011755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 01/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.7N 72.7W...OR ABOUT 275 NM TO THE EAST OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 01/1800 UTC IS NEAR 19.3N 62.2W...OR ABOUT 90 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANGUILLA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC MENTIONED ON PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 1500 UTC...LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 35.8W...MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA OVER GUINEA NEAR 10N14W WESTWARD ALONG 9N19W TO 11N24W...RESUMING SW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE NEAR 8N37W CONTINUING W ALONG 8N43W TO 9N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST AFRICA E OF 23W FROM 6N TO 18N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS COMBINED WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT INLAND OVER SE TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL GULF...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 84W...WITH THE MOST CONVECTIVE AREA FOCUSED FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BRINGING A BREAK TO THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 27N...WHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ELSEWHERE W OF 85W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND W GULF...AND THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 20N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SFC OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW CONVERGENCE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN...SUPPORTED BY AN ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 64W IS BEING IMPACTED BY THE OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM FIONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG CONVECTION TO THE NE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 12N W OF 75W...DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE THE FAR NW BASIN N OF 19N W OF 83W...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE EARL AND TROPICAL STORM FIONA ARE THE MAIN FEATURES OF CONCERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 60W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 60W N OF 17N...AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N50W AND ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 33N28W. DRY SAHARAN AIR ALOFT IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE VISIBLE E OF 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA