000 AXNT20 KNHC 312343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 31/2100 UTC IS NEAR 22.0N 68.8W...OR ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 67W-70W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 65W-71W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 31/2100 UTC IS NEAR 16.7N 57.7W OR ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 21 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 55W-60W... AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 59W-61W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 12 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 30W-33W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 12N16W TO 10N20W...RESUMING WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N34W CONTINUING TO 8N40W 12N45W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 32W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA NEAR 38N80W PRODUCING E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER LAX THUS WINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 23N96W TO 16N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 93W-98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN ADDITION...A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED OVER W CUBA AND THE SE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 81W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N99W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS LOW IS PRODUCING ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT ...CONVECTION TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PRESENTLY CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO HURRICANE EARL. MORE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM FIONA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N76W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS PRESENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICS...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N44W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY E OF 50W N OF 14N. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N72W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA