000 AXNT20 KNHC 311200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... DANIELLE HAS BECOME POST-TROPICAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1... AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 31/1200 UTC WAS ESTIMATED FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR NEAR 20.9N 67.4W...OR ABOUT 190 NM TO THE NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM PUERTO RICO TO 23N BETWEEN 64W AND 29W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 31/1200 UTC IS NEAR 15.8N 54.4W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N27W 12N28W...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N28W...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD ALONG 28W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W. ...THE ITCZ... LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT RELATED TO THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 40W. THE ACTIVITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL STORM FIONA HAVE BROKEN UP THE ITCZ TO SOME DEGREE. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST 8N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE ACAPULCO AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WATERS IN BETWEEN CUBA... HAITI...AND JAMAICA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. EVERYONE IS PAYING ATTENTION TO HURRICANE EARL IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N70W INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE AROUND THE BAHAMAS... INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 27N60W. HURRICANE EARL IS AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS ABOUT 875 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HURRICANE EARL. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N48W 27N60W TROUGH...MOVING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT