000 AXNT20 KNHC 301803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 30/1500 UTC IS NEAR 40.9N 50.7W...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 40N TO 42N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 30/1800 UTC IS NEAR 19.0N 64.2W...OR ABOUT 65 NM TO THE NE OF ST. THOMAS...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...AFFECTING THE ISLANDS AND WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W MOVING WESTWARD 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE NEAR 14N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. THE CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 18N. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE NOTED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE NEAR 15N25W. SAHARAN AIR SURROUNDING THE WAVE IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 9W-30W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N20W WESTWARD ALONG 7N28W TO 10N37W. THEN...IT RESUMES NEAR 10N48W TO 14N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 9W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... 500 MB HEIGHTS ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING RIDGE AXIS DOWN TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N96W. THIS FEATURE IS PUSHING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-92W. DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC IS GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 86W S OF 25N. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...WITH E-SE WINDS TO 15 KT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NE CARIBBEAN IS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO HURCN EARL ENTERING THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 67W N OF 14N...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE NW OUT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE AND MORE DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 18N76W 14N79W 10N80W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W S OF 20N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 12N W OF 78W...DUR TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO COSTA RICA. DRY AIR ALOFT IS SEEN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC W OF 72W FROM 23N TO 27N INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FARTHER SE...HURRICANE EARL IS AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N48W TO 26N58W...CONTINUING AS A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE TO 23N70W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 25 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 27N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N40W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS N OF 20N E OF 48W ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA