000 AXNT20 KNHC 301200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 30/0900 UTC IS NEAR 40.4N 52.0W...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 40N TO 42N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 30/1200 UTC IS NEAR 18.4N 62.9W...OR ABOUT 25 NM/40 KM TO THE NNE OF ST. MARTIN...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 95 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AFFECTING THE ISLANDS AND WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N22W...TO 10N20W...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 20W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE WHICH NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS JUST RELATED TO THE ITCZ AND WHICH JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 9N22W 10N31W 13N38W...11N44W 11N50W 14N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 18W NEAR AFRICA...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA VIA LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPRINKLED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLAND...ADDING TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN GENERAL. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG 77W/78W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA AND THE WATERS FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. HURRICANE EARL IS THE BIG NEWS STORY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE AND MORE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS... AND HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA TO 25N72W..ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO 28N60W TO 24N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 27N ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN 72W AND 82W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HURRICANE EARL IS AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE AND MORE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS...AND HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT