000 AXNT20 KNHC 300548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 30/0300 UTC IS NEAR 39.3N 53.0W...OR ABOUT 445 NM TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 30/0600 UTC IS NEAR 18.1N 61.8W...OR ABOUT 30 NM/55 KM TO THE NORTH OF BARBUDA...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W...AFFECTING THE ISLANDS AND WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 69W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 18N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N21W...TO 14N20W 10N19W... AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 19W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE WHICH NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS JUST RELATED TO THE ITCZ AND WHICH JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 9N22W 10N31W 13N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W NEAR AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA VIA LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS COVER THE GULF WATERS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W/83W ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TO 92W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLAND...ADDING TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN GENERAL. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG 77W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 6N. HURRICANE EARL IS THE BIG NEWS STORY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE AND MORE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS...AND HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA TO 26N72W..ABOUT 270 NM TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 28N59W TO 26N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 26N ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. HURRICANE EARL IS AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE AND MORE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS...AND HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N39W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT