000 AXNT20 KNHC 291758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 35.5N 58.4W AT 29/1500 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 500 NM ENE OF BERMUDA...OR ABOUT 680 NM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING NE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIELLE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT PICKED UP SPEED IN FORWARD MOTION. MOST DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW TO THE N AND E DUE TO SW SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 35N-42N BETWEEN 51W-60W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 52W-56W. HURRICANE EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 58.9W AT 29/1800 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 165 NM E OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 245 NM E OF ST. MARTIN...MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR EARL. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TUESDAY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WHERE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOW EXTENDS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 57W-61W...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 55W-62W. THE WRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 14N CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE PASS ALSO INDICATED WIND OF 20-25 KT AROUND THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE S INDICATING THAT THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS TO THE WRN SIDE OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 37W-42W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N22W 7N30W 9N40W 10N47W 13N52W 10N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 13W-24W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 27W-31W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 45W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NE CONUS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE NW GULF COASTLINE FROM LOUISIANA TO SRN TEXAS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MISSOURI TO THE NRN GULF S OF MISSISSIPPI. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 95W-98W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR 26N99W WITH AXIS EXTENDING EWD AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLIGHTLY EWD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N80W AND DOWN THE NICARAGUA COAST ALONG 15N83W 10N83W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER WRN HONDURAS WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO ERN CUBA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-83W...FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 80W-82W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 76W-78W. UPPER RIDGING ALONG WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT IS TO EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING BOTH THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND MAJORITY OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EARL HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES WWD. ALSO EXPECT EARL TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND DOWN THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS SOME INLAND PORTIONS W OF 78W MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MOISTURE BOUNDARY BETWEEN DRY AIR AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING S OVER THE NW ATLC AND UPPER MOISTURE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE SW ATLC MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES THE SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST DESCRIBED. TO THE E...HURRICANE DANIELLE HAS MOVED N OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HURRICANE EARL IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH SYSTEMS. SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N40W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 24N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 30N39W TO 16N52W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON