000 AXNT20 KNHC 291236 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010 UPDATED TROPICAL STORM EARL BECOMING A HURRICANE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 33.2N 57.3W AT 29/0900 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 380 NM E OF BERMUDA OR ABOUT 835 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIELLE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH THE EYE FEATURE NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW TO THE NE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DUE TO THE SW SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 54W-57W. EARL IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AS OF 29/1230 UTC. HURRICANE EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 57.7W AT 29/1230 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 320 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARL APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE WITH THE OUTFLOW OF EARL RESTRICTED ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY AS EARL MOVES AWAY FROM DANIELLE. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MID WEEK. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 55W-58W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAST APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 11N WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE/LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS COVERING THE AREA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 35W-39W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 7N21W 8N31W THEN RESUMES NEAR 10N38W 8N48W INTO THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N62W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 11W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W COVERING THE W GULF AND EXTENDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC. N OF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY S JUST E OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA INTO THE FAR N GULF TO NEAR 28N89W SUPPORTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NOW CENTERED JUST INLAND ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR LAKE CHARLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO NEAR 27N97W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COMPLIMENTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NW OF A LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MORALES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 90W. DUE TO THE EASTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE S GULF AND A SURFACE LOW IN THE E PACIFIC REGION JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-96W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE KEEPING BRISK UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 83W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM W PANAMA ACROSS W HAITI. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 79W-83W. MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO OVER THE ISLANDS COMPLIMENTS OF TROPICAL STORM EARL. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS AS EARL CONTINUES ON THE W THEN W-NW TRACK. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE REACHING THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DIPPING S TO 27N W OF 60W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW ATLC TO 26N70W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING S OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN COVERING THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-70W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 27N66W SW TO OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC TO 26N W OF 70W TO OVER THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ON THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-31N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST...HURRICANE DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NE BUT WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF TO BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TO THE E OF DANIELLE IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N42W DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW