000 AXNT20 KNHC 290602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5N 58.8W AT 29/0300 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 310 NM E OF BERMUDA OR ABOUT 950 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS DANIELLE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 56W-60W. TROPICAL STORM EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 56.2W AT 29/0600 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 405 NM E-SE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY W-NW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NW AND N. THE CURRENT NE SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HR ALLOWING EARL TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72 HR. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 54W-58W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 13N-19N BETWEEN 52W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 10N WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE/LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS COVERING THE AREA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 33W-37W. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TONIGHT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W TO 15N25W THEN RESUMES NEAR 9N35W 10N41W TO 12N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 7N24W TO 6N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 37W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N97W EXTENDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE FAR W ATLC. N OF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA INTO THE FAR NW GULF NEAR 27N91W SUPPORTING A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST JUST S OF LAKE CHARLES AT 0300 UTC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO NEAR 27N96W AS INDICATED BY A NARROW CLOUD LINE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF N OF 25N E OF 91W TO OVER THE SE CONUS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DUE TO THE EASTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE S GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INDUCED A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM 22N89W TO NW GUATEMALA BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 95W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY/SCENARIO OVER W CUBA IS MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 25N E OF 87W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 81W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM PANAMA TO SW HAITI. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...WITH THE QUICKLY APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM EARL RIDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CONDITIONS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS BY MORNING WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING IN LATER SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DIPPING S TO 29N W OF 63W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW ATLC TO 26N70W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING S OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN COVERING THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 45W-65W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N66W SW TO OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC TO 27N W OF 70W TO OVER THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 27N W OF 69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-31N W OF 69W TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST...HURRICANE DANIELLE IS MOVING N-NE AND QUICKLY BECOMING ENTANGLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC. DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROVIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF TO BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TO THE E OF DANIELLE IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 32N46W DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC. 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