000 AXNT20 KNHC 282356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.3N 59.7W AT 28/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 285 NM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. DANIELLE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH AXIS FROM NOVA SCOTIA CANADA TO 32N70W THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DANIELLE N-NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE EXPERIENCING A GRADUAL WEAKENING. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN 54W-62W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 54.6W AT 29/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 495 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. EARL IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N60W. WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LOW WIND SHEAR... AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SURROUNDING THE ENVIRONMENT OF EARL...INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EASTERN AND 120 NM WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 51W-58W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 07N TO 19N ALONG 30W WITH A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N30W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE AND LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 26W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINS LIMITED TO THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 30W-35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 07N-17N BETWEEN 25W-35W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W TO 15N26W...RESUMING NEAR 10N33W TO 13N45W...THEN ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 60W-80W ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 13W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 23N97W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-NE TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE FAR W ATLC. NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LOUISIANA AND SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW AND THEN S FROM THE LOW ALONG 26N95W TO 20N95W. MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...STRONG SE WINDS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 24N E OF 92W AND THE SW GULF S OF 27N W OF 92W. SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NW AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 10N81W THAT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING ALONG 10N/11N EASTWARD TO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. WITH HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER W OF 73W AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 68W-83W. THIS INCLUDES HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA STRETCHING FROM EASTERN PANAMA TO WESTERN HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N60W. HOWEVER...WITH THE QUICKLY APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM EARL RIDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CONDITIONS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 72 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC BETWEEN 65W AND THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. WHILE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTHWARD TO 32N70W...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W-82W NEAR A DISSIPATED REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 31N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY N OF 27N...INCLUDING A SMALLER AREA OVER THE NW BAHAMAS W OF 76W. FARTHER EAST... HURRICANE DANIELLE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND QUICKLY BECOMING ENTANGLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE U.S. SEABOARD. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE PROVIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF TO BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 44N32W AND SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N26W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 26N34W AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TO 24N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED N OF 20N E OF 50W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN