000 AXNT20 KNHC 272347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 27/0000 UTC IS NEAR 27.7N 60.4W...OR ABOUT 360 NM...SE OF BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AT 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 58W-62W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 57W-65W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 27/0000 UTC IS NEAR 15.9N 46.9W...OR ABOUT 940 NM E OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 47W-50W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 42W-46W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N23W 7N24W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1009 MB LOW ON THE AXIS NEAR 12N24W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-28W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 9N27W TO 13N36W RESUMING S OF EARL NEAR 10N46W ALONG 8N53W 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 29W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO 25N94W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SRN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF S OF THE FRONT N OF 25N 84W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP ALONG THE WRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 24N94W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE N COVERING MUCH OF THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING S OF CUBA RESULTING FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SIMILAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. A PORTION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM NRN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 74W-81W...AS WELL ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E OF THE CIRCULATION OF DANIELLE...ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N81W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W TO NRN VENEZUELA NEAR 12N71W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND ALSO POSSIBLE ENHANCED ACTIVITY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES WWD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 79W ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TO NEAR 31N69W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N COVERING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HUGS THE NRN DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N BETWEEN 70W-81W. HURRICANE DANIELLE IS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM EARL IS THE SE OF DANIELLE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ACROSS THE ERN ATLC...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N29W TO 27N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS W OF DANIELLE EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE DANIELLE CENTERED NEAR 22N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N31W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N44W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 22N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON