000 AXNT20 KNHC 271806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MAJOR HURRICANE DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DANIELLE IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OF THE YEAR 2010. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 27/1500 UTC IS NEAR 26.9N 59.8W...OR ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 27/1500 UTC IS NEAR 15.7N 43.6W...OR ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W S OF 18N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE. THE WAVE SHOWS A SHARP SURFACE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE SYSTEM NEAR 13N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TOO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W. THERE OS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 7N46W 8N55W 12N62W...RESUMING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N70W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 46W TO 62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 70W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST CONUS NOTED OF WATER VAPOR. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS IS CLASHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HUGS THE COAST OF THE ESE STATES...EXCLUDING FLORIDA...SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 29N91W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 24N95W TO 18N96W. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THIS FRONT AS WARM DUE TO A SLIGHT NW SHIFT OVER THE LAST 6 HRS. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 290 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...AFFECTING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND COASTAL WATERS OF FAR EAST LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE MEXICO FROM MATAMOROS TO COATZACOALCOS. THE OVERALL CONVECTION IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE MENTIONED REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 70W. THE ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY RELATED TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A PORTION OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO NE VENEZUELA ALONG 9N82W 12N78W 13N70W. AN E TO W ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER JAMAICA. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT SURROUNDS THIS LOW SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT KEEPING CONVECTION DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TRANSFERRING TO THE NW BASIN THOUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD N OF 29N...ASSOCIATED TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FARTHER EAST...MAJOR HURCN DANIELLE IS LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THE NRN DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N29W 29N33W 27N38W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN OCCLUDED UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC. T.S. EARL IS SW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC LOCATED ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE FAR ERN ATLC N OF 16N E OF 29W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA