000 AXNT20 KNHC 270609 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIELLE IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DANIELLE IS THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE YEAR 2010. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 27/0600 UTC IS NEAR 26.2N 58.1W...OR ABOUT 500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W... AND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 54W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 27/0300 UTC IS NEAR 15.5N 40.2W...OR ABOUT 1220 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLAND...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W...AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 24W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS...THROUGH WESTERN NICARAGUA...ALONG 86W SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W IN SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. ...THE ITCZ... 9N23W 12N28W...9N40W 8N47W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 12N61W AND BEYOND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W...FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W...AND FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...WITH A RIDGE THAT CUTS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... CURVING TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 96W AND 97W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 87W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W...ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WHOSE CENTER IS NEAR 23N65W...AND THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 23N65W CYCLONIC CENTER ULTIMATELY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...JUST OFF THE VENEZUELA COAST. SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W...AND OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 24N74W TO A 19N78W CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... CONTINUING INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA... AND THEN ACROSS GUATEMALA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 80W NORTHWARD TO THE WATERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IN BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE DANIELLE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 63W. TROPICAL STORM EARL COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W. INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT