000 AXNT20 KNHC 262357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 26/2100 UTC IS NEAR 25.2N 57.0W...OR ABOUT 590 NM...SE OF BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. AN EYE HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIELLE INDICATING A STRENGTHENING PATTERN AND MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 56W-59W...AS WELL AS IN AN OUTER RAINBAND TO THE NE FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 53W-56W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 55W-61W...AND FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 51W-57W. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE SYSTEM. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 26/2100 UTC IS NEAR 15.2N 38.8W...OR ABOUT 1410 NM E OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY NW OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 38W-41W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 20W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE CLEAR CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 19W-27W WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY ABOUT TO IMPACT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM W OF THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N83W ACROSS WRN CUBA NEAR 22N85W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W...AND ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH MAXIMUM VALUES N OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 83W-89W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER WRN CUBA AND S FLORIDA FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N23W TO 14N30W RESUMING S OF EARL NEAR 10N40W ALONG 8N45W 11N61W AND ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 12N70W 11N83W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-82W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE WRN GULF NEAR 24N95W AT THE TAIL END OF STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W CONTINUING SW TO THE LOW CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N95W 21N95W 19N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WITHIN 320 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LOW CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING WWD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 89W-92W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN CUBA AND S FLORIDA AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. ALOFT...A MOIST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 25N92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NRN GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH ALSO DELINEATES THE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY S OF THE FRONT WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE N. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM WRN CUBA TO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IS ENHANCING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS WELL AS OVER WRN CUBA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A PORTION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-82W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 21N64W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 78W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N61W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER. HURRICANE DANIELLE IS SE OF THE HIGH. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS W OF DANIELLE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E. A COLD FRONT SKIMS THE NRN DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 29N BETWEEN 41W-49W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC. T.S. EARL IS S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N27W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON