000 AXNT20 KNHC 252354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE AT 25/2100 UTC IS NEAR 21.2N 53.1W...OR ABOUT 585 NM...ENE OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING NW AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY NW OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 50W-54W...FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 48W-52W...AND FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 56W-60W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 25/2100 UTC IS NEAR 14.4N 32.2W...OR ABOUT 450 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. EARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 30W-33W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 32W-35W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE W AFRICA COAST ALONG 16W FROM 7N-20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 13W-19W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W...TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-82W IN WHICH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER VALUES OF RELATIVE VORTICITY THAT CAN BE TRACKED MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IN SYNC WITH THE WAVE AXIS MOVEMENT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 73W-85W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 11N17W TO 12N24W RESUMING S OF EARL NEAR 10N32W CONTINUING ALONG 7N40W 11N49W INTO NRN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 18W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING DRAWN NWD FROM THE ITCZ TOWARD DANIELLE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 48W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE WRN GULF NEAR 25N93W CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTER ALONG 28N88W 26N92W 25N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE N EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA STATE BORDER NEAR 30N88W CONTINUING TO THE SRN TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 23N-29N EXTENDING FROM SRN TEXAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PUSHED OFF THE ERN SEABOARD EXTENDING S TO E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK UPPER RIDING IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING ALSO OVER THE NW GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH ALSO DELINEATES THE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY S OF THE FRONT WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 88W-94W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP ACROSS CUBA MOST LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA TO PANAMA IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 73W-85W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CUBA ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE E PACIFIC...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. REMNANT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. SOME STATIONS ARE EVEN REPORTING THE PRESENCE OF DUST INDICATING A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND OFF THE ERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE W OF 72W ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE ERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH EXTENDS TO THE NW BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALSO ENHANCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF 76W. SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N61W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 27N69W. HURRICANE DANIELLE IS SE OF THE HIGH. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS W OF DANIELLE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N40W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER TO THE ENE. TROPICAL STORM EARL IS SSE OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON