000 AXNT20 KNHC 242356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE AT 24/12100 UTC IS NEAR 17.5N 48.2W...OR ABOUT 780 NM...E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING W 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 47W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 46W-50W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 44W-50W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1008 MB LOW IS SSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N25W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. THIS LOW IS STEADILY DEEPENING AND COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 25W-28W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 28W-31W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 27N70W ACROSS TURKS AND CAICOS...AND HAITI TO 18N72W TO NRN VENEZUELA NEAR 12N71W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE AXIS...WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-76W EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 64W-73W. STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER NRN HAITI...AND IS ALSO INLAND OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 9N28W TO 15N40W RESUMING NEAR 13N50W 11N60W ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN TO 12N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 13W-17W. STRONG CONVECTION IS FARTHER INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG NRN S AMERICA WITHIN 150 NM INLAND OF THE COASTLINE BETWEEN 54W-71W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A FORMING STATIONARY FRONT LINES THE NRN GULF COAST EXTENDING FROM A 1007 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N89W 26N93W 27N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN S OF 29N E OF 93W WITH AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 94W-97W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS DOWN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 88W-93W S OF 23N. ONLY THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER SOMEWHAT FAIR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD SUPPORTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN GULF. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER LOUISIANA...WHILE MAINLY MOIST NELY FLOW COVERS THE SRN HALF OF THE BASIN. A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN GULF COINCIDING WITH THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP ACROSS CUBA MOST LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO S OF CUBA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 82W-84W...AND ACROSS JAMAICA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 74W-81W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A PORTION OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS SRN COAST RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 9N83W 12N79W 12N74W. THIS AREA IS ALSO UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN A WEAK INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI TO NRN VENEZUELA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 64W-73W...AND AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN HAITI AND NRN COLOMBIA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE VENEZUELA TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 150 NM INLAND OF THE NRN S AMERICA COASTLINE DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A PORTION OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING ALONG 11N. EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH CONTINUED AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SOME STATIONS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ALREADY REPORTING THE PRESENCE OF DUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRIER AIR MASS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND OFF THE ERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE W OF 71W ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 27N70W ACROSS TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS N OF HAITI WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP OVER HAITI AND TO THE S. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N58W...AND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N30W. THE CIRCULATION OF DANIELLE...AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CREATE WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 27N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E NEAR 25N50W...TO THE NW OF DANIELLE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DIRECTLY E OF DANIELLE BETWEEN 32W-45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 19N18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON