000 AXNT20 KNHC 232356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 23/2100 UTC. HURRICANE DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 41.5W AT 23/2100 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 1150 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A W-NW TRACK BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NW WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DANIELLE SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT THE NW QUADRANT...BUT IS STARTING TO IMPROVE AS THE SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO RELAX. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 15N41.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 40W-44W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES W OR W-NW AT ABOUT 13 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 19W-25W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 25N63W IN THE W ATLC ALONG 20N65W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 13N63W IN THE E CARIBBEAN MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWATH OF MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS PRECEDING AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR AS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTING. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 27N73W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA TO E JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N21W TO 11N32W THEN RESUMES W OF HURRICANE DANIELLE NEAR 12N45W 9N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N63W THEN ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N73W TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER NEAR 9N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N25W TO 6N28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GULF REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S TO OVER THE N GULF COAST E OF LOUISIANA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS AND A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 24N89W. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF WATERS IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST AT THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SE TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 21N E OF 92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 23N96W LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SMALL UPPER LOW IS OVER BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N89W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR W CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 83W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR NEAR 9N76W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N72W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. TWO TROPICAL WAVES EXTEND S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DOT THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 69W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... PRIMARY FOCUS THIS EVENING IS HURRICANE DANIELLE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 29N75W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W AND DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 76W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N W OF 77W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA HAVE MOVED N INTO THE W ATLC WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 67W-73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 27N73W TO 33N65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 70W WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 30N57W AND 31N32W AND BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW