000 AXNT20 KNHC 231102 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 37.1W...OR ABOUT 770 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 36W-42W. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 25N59W 19N61W 13N59W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS FOLLOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BETWEEN 58W-63W INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WEAK BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST E OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 17N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N70W TO 19N74W MOVING NW NEAR 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SUPPORTING ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 7N21W TO 12N30W. THEN RESUMES SE OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE NEAR 8N42W...CONTINUING ALONG 8N49W TO 11N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND 29W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS GOOD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THIS REGION. WEAKER SCATTERED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 42W AND 56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR MOVING INTO THE E SEABOARD AND SE STATES...CREATING A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN MOIST AND DRY AIR ALONG THE SE US COASTLINE. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF E OF 93W N OF 24N. THE ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE LOW LOCATED 80 NM WEST OF MADEIRA BEACH FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 24N87W. AS CONDITIONS ARE EVOLVING QUITE RAPIDLY...REEFER TO YOUR LOCAL COASTAL NWS FOR MORE DETAILS AND WARNINGS. THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1013 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 24N93W SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS W OF 93W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W...PROVIDED BY THE COMBINATION OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF HONDURAS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FLOW BETWEEN UPPER RIDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A PORTION OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W. THE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BETWEEN 63W-70W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER MOST OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 71W S OF 27N...INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 26N75W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALSO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 28N69W TO 19N74W. ASIDE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND T.S. DANIELLE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 25N ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N53W AND A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 31N32W...MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS FURTHER PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 44W-55W. ALOFT...WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS BETWEEN 50W-70W. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 27N45W WITH UPPER RIDGING COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA