000 AXNT20 KNHC 222358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... UPGRADED AT 2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 35.1W...OR ABOUT 630 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 35W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 36W-45W...FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 38W-40W...AND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 31W-34W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 24N56W 17N56W 11N52W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS FOLLOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BETWEEN 56W-60W INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST E OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 15N-24N...AND WITHIN 170 NM E OF THE AXIS S OF 15N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N69W TO JUST W OF HAITI NEAR 18N74W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY. THIS WAVE IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM MAINLY E OF THE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 10N20W 15N24W PICKING BACK UP S OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE NEAR 10N35W CONTINUING ALONG 9N44W 11N51W 11N63W AND ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN LONG 11N TO CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 13W-17W...FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 23W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 36W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING E OF 91W INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE SE UNITED STATES COASTLINE ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO NEAR 28N89W...S OF MOBILE ALABAMA. A SEABREEZE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N94W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES W OF 91W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF CUBA MOVING S EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO UNDER MAINLY NLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER RIDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER OVER THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 18N BETWEEN 80W-86W INFLUENCED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF HONDURAS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A PORTION OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING ALONG 11N ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA. THE SRN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF HAITI IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W. THE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BETWEEN 63W-68W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF 75W N OF THE BAHAMAS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALSO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 28N69W TO 18N74W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 130 NM OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 56W-61W AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS E OF THIS WAVE AXIS PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 44W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 31N32W. ALOFT...WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS BETWEEN 48W-65W. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 28N43W WITH UPPER RIDGING COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON