000 AXNT20 KNHC 211736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB ELONGATED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC NEAR 11N31W IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH S OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 20W-40W. WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY UNORGANIZED...THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N46W TO 18N48W TO 11N45W MOVING W AT 12-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 44W-48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO WEST AFRICA FROM 12N-25N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W S OF 23N MOVING W AT 12-15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO HAS A WEAK AREA OF DUST AND DRY AIR E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 48W FROM 15N-30N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 64W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH MEXICO FROM 23N97W TO 14N94W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 94W-97W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N33W 12N45W 10N50W 11N60W. CROSS EQUATORIAL MONSOON FLOW IS E OF 33W TO WEST AFRICA AND THUS NOT DEPICTED AS AN ITCZ. THE 1009 MB LOW MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W. WEAK 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF ALONG THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 83W-87W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF BARBADOS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 58W-61W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND JAMAICA FROM 16N-20N. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N25W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 29N40W 28N65W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 26N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 62W-64W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA