000 AXNT20 KNHC 200619 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N25W... ABOUT 200 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N40W 18N39W 12N35W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 12N TO 25N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 23N88W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... REACHING 17N87W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS...INTO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N85W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NICARAGUA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. POSSIBLY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE IN HONDURAS...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 12N39W TO 11N45W 12N55W BEYOND 10N60W INTO VENEZUELA. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 21W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE U.S.A. FROM LOUISIANA...ACROSS TEXAS...INTO MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN MOVING FROM GUATEMALA WESTWARD...NOW IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE MEXICO COASTAL WATERS ALONG 107W. A SEPARATE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N94W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND BARELY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE TROUGH FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N61W. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 31N57W. A SECOND TROUGH GOES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N62W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 65W/66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N60W 24N62W 19N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 26N INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N IN THE HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS TO 25N OVER ANDROS ISLAND...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... IN A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 50W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS...INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W TO 27N56W 21N59W AND BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W...AND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 70W AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT