000 AXNT20 KNHC 191201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N33W 18N32W 14N30W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W TO THE SOUTH OF 25N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM WESTERN CUBA...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...TOWARD THE PANAMA COAST ALONG 80W. AT LEAST TWO AREAS OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHS ARE ON TOP OF THE WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND COASTAL WATERS...WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...AND IN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 13N30W TO 13N39W 9N52W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL STATES...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 22N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN MOVING FROM GUATEMALA WESTWARD...NOW IS ROLLING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF JAMAICA...AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD STEADILY...AFTER BEING ON TOP OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT LEAST THREE DAYS AGO. A SEPARATE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/A TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA TO THE WEST OF 72W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND COASTAL WATERS...WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...AND IN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 74W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 50W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS...INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W TO 27N56W 21N59W AND BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W...AND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 70W AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT