000 AXNT20 KNHC 190531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N32W 18N31W 14N27W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N39W 18N41W 12N40W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N52W 13N53W 7N53W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 17N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TO 11N79W. AT LEAST TWO AREAS OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHS ARE ON TOP OF THE WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER TO 13N ACROSS COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 74W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 13N30W TO 13N39W 9N52W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL STATES...FROM LOUISIANA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 22N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BEEN MOVING FROM GUATEMALA WESTWARD. THIS CENTER NOW IS ROLLING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA TO 95W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 19N101W...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 105W AND 107W IN MEXICO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF JAMAICA. THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD STEADILY...AFTER BEING ON TOP OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT LEAST THREE DAYS AGO. A SEPARATE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/A TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA TO THE WEST OF 72W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER PARTS OF COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 7N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 74W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 50W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS...INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W TO 27N56W 21N59W AND BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 31N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N53W TO 31N60W AND 31N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 27N62W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT