000 AXNT20 KNHC 180603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL AFRICA DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS. NEARBY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ MORE THAN JUST WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N71W...ACROSS HAITI... BEYOND 16N73W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND ITS BORDER WITH VENEZUELA ALONG 10N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW IF THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT COVER THE WATERS FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 78W ARE ASSOCIATED JUST WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND/OR JUST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 88W SIX HOURS AGO NO LONGER IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DATA. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 13N30W TO 12N42W 8N50W...THROUGH NORTHERN GUYANA BEYOND 6N60W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 15N BETWEEN 5W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 29N83W 26N90W 20N97W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND IN MEXICO BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND 103W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH NOW ONLY COVERS PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...INTO ARIZONA. ALONG 31N110W 24N106W 20N104W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE AREA OF COMPARATIVELY BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CENTRAL CUBA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND TO THE WEST OF 85W IN CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N85W 14N81W 10N78W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT NOW IS NEAR CUBA POSSIBLY HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N53W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 10N60W. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH REACHES 15N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...THAT POSSIBLY IS YESTERDAY'S TROUGH...IS ALONG 66W/67W...FROM NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA AND 14N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 31N65W AND 31N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N75W 29N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N59W 26N70W TO 23N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 20N53W TO 10N60W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT