000 AXNT20 KNHC 171144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE REMNANT 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 29.5N90W IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA AND TO THE EAST OF TEXAS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY NOW THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL AFRICA DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N28W TO 12N36W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N65W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N BETWEEN 67W/68W...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 67W/68W MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THE AREAS OF EARLIER PRECIPITATION IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THESE AREAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HUG THE COASTLINE FROM EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. IT IS POSSIBLE ALSO THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND NOT THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 12N30W TO 8N40W 8N50W 12N58W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 51W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN COVERING THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND AREAS FROM BRAZIL NEAR 50W TO GUYANA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 15N46W...EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 28N83W 23N90W IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND 100W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...AND AT THE WESTERN END OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS IN MEXICO ALONG 31N110W 24N106W 20N104W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 106W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 21N80W TO A 18N85W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS AND INLAND FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTHWARD ALONG 73W/74W TO COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 22N. THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS AROUND THE 22N65W TROPICAL WAVE THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 67W/68W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 33N56W TO 32N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 32N63W TO 28N70W AND TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 22N72W NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 22N46W 15N46W 10N54W...TOWARD THE GUYANA/SURINAME BORDER. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF 10N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT