000 AXNT20 KNHC 170654 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010 AMENDED/UPDATED FOR THE 17/0600 UTC POSITION OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPECIAL FEATURE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE REMNANT 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 17/0600 UTC IS ABOUT 30 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA OR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL AFRICA DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N28W TO 14N24W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N63W 16N65W TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 65W/66W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W...AND IN THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND 69W. A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THE AREAS OF EARLIER PRECIPITATION IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THESE AREAS. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 12N30W TO 8N40W 8N50W 12N58W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 8W AND 50W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN FRENCH GUIANA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM BRAZIL NEAR 50W TO GUYANA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT REACHES NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 26N82W 22N90W IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...AND AT THE WESTERN END OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS IN MEXICO ALONG 31N109W 22N104W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N109W 20N105W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 21N80W TO A 19N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TOWARD BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CLOUD CLUSTERS THAT ARE IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND 75W ARE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTHWARD ALONG 73W TO COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 22N. THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS AROUND THE 20N63W 16N65W TROPICAL WAVE THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 65W/66W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N64W TO 28N76W AND 30N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 22N71W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 25N45W 18N48W 10N54W...TOWARD THE GUYANA/SURINAME BORDER. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT