000 AXNT20 KNHC 170002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE...IS LOCATED 80 NM SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA NEAR 29N87W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE SYSTEM COVERING MOST OF THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N W OF 85W ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES...WHERE STRONG BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA MOVING WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS...ALSO CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS ALSO EAST OF THE AXIS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST SUPPRESSING CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 26W. THE ACTIVITY S OF 14N IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 64W SOUTH OF ANEGADA ISLAND TO PUERTO LA CRUZ VENEZUELA MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W-68W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WEST CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE W CARIBBEAN WEST OF 76 AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA OVER GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 13N25W 9N36W 8N46W 12N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE GULF IS A 1009 MB LOW LOCATED 80 NM SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ASIDE THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 29N WITHIN 100 NM OFFSHORE...ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA E OF 92W MOVING WEST INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH LINES UP ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM ALTAMIRA TO VERACRUZ...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 76W...DOMINATED BY THE COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ALONG 10N TO NRN COLOMBIA. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ACROSS HAITI TO N OF PANAMA. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 64W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THIS WAVE MOVES WESTWARD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 32N64W 28N72W 67N78W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 40N28W MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC FURTHER PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA