000 AXNT20 KNHC 161800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE...IS LOCATED S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA NEAR 29N86W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF WHERE STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN S AND W OF THE LOW CENTER COVERING THE AREA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 86W-94W. CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WWD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLC OVER THE WRN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23N24W TO 9N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS ALSO E OF THE AXIS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST SUPPRESSION CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 15W-23W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 18N60W TO INLAND VENEZUELA NEAR 7N64W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 58W-65W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N84W TO 9N82W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE W ATLC INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE IMPACTING COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 82W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W. MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 11N25W 9N34W 8N48W 10N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 28W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1009 MB LOW IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR A 1014 MB HIGH OFF THE SRN COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 26N95W MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE S OF MEXICO ALONG 100W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 94W-98W. ALOFT...NE-E FLOW COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES WWD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...NELY FLOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WAVE OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-81W SUPPORTED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ALONG 10N TO NRN COLOMBIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE BAHAMAS ACROSS HAITI TO N OF PANAMA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF ERN CUBA AND ACROSS JAMAICA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 76W-81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-71W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THIS WAVE MOVES WWD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 31N62W 29N70W 27N76W 31N81W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 64W-73W...AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 77W-81W. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM ERN TEXAS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 67W-70W ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE NE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N47W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 40N29W MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-60W PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS COVERING THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23N22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON/MONTALVO