000 AXNT20 KNHC 161102 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE REMNANT 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS NEAR 30N86W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...AND IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE FORECAST MODELS MOVE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N20W TO 12N29W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 8N59W TO DOMINICA TO 20N62W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W...AND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N82W BEYOND 9N79W IN PANAMA MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AREA FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE STRONG PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND 14N98W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 59W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN FRENCH GUIANA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM BRAZIL NEAR 50W TO GUYANA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ALONG 24N85W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC MOST PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND 14N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS IN MEXICO ALONG 20N104W 25N104W TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...IN BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 16N71W TO 13N75W TOWARD THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE AREA FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 22N. THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS AROUND THE 20N62W 8N59W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH 33N55W TO 31N61W 26N70W AND WEAKENING AS IT POINTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N70W TO 27N73W AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD 32N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N57W 28N62W 21N79W...AND FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...THAT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT