000 AXNT20 KNHC 152359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA EXTENDING W TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA GENERATING HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA BORDER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING MOST OF THE SE CONUS. THE LOW IS MOVING S AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SW AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 19N23W. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE BRIDGING THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE TO OVER THE SURFACE LOW WITH A DRY SLOT OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N59W ALONG 14N59W TO 9N55W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN AIR WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 18N TO 64W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS FROM 20N81W ALONG 715N79W TO 10N77W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IS OBSCURING ANY INDICATION OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE THAT WOULD BE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MARK THE EXACT LOCATION. ANY CONVECTION/ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION NOT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N25W 9N33W 11N48W 9N61W THEN ACROSS N VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THEN ALONG THE N COAST OF PANAMA TO OVER COSTA RICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 25W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 16-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER S MISSISSIPPI/SE LOUISIANA COVERING THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW BENEATH. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER S FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 26N E OF 85W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S GULF S OF 22N BETWEEN 88W-93W. A WEAKENING 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 23N BETWEEN 84W-95W...LITTLE OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS JUST S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N70W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. E FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-85W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 15N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE THE PRESENCE OT THE ITCZ. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH 32N62W TO NEAR 26N69W AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N59W SW ALONG 27N71W THEN NW TO A 1013 MB LOW JUST INLAND OVER E GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONT AND W OF A LINE FROM 32N51W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N54W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY DISCUSSED ABOVE. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ALL OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES THROUGH 32N41W TO 22N66W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N-32N BETWEEN 31W-53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW