000 AXNT20 KNHC 151049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 13W-21W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N53W TO 13N51W TO 8N46W MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE EXHIBITS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 15N-16N BETWEEN 50W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 73W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 75W-77W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 92W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 89W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 94W-97W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 9N30W 9N50W 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 54W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 85W-90W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 94W-97W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N97W. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 78W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 81W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 75W-76W. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...E TO NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 65W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N59W 27N70W TO GEORGIA NEAR 31N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 38N32W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 22N59W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND DUST IS N OF 15N E OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N49W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CENTER. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA