000 AXNT20 KNHC 150523 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 15W/16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 15W-17W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N50W TO 9N44W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE EXHIBITS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO WEST AFRICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 72W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-75W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 84W-95W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 9N20W 8N40W 10N50W 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 20W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 35W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR SEBRING FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 81W-82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N GULF STATES N OF 29N E OF LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-97W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 77W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 84W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...E TO NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 65W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 28N70W TO SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 32N40W 25N55W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND DUST IS N OF 15N E OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N45W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE CENTER. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA