000
AXNT20 KNHC 142353
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 14W/15W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER 
SENEGAL/WESTERN SAHARA AND CLUSTERS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST 
OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 11N-19N. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N48W TO 9N44W MOVING W 15-20 KT. 
WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE 
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR 
AND THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W S OF 17N 
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED 
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD AREA OF 
DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS EVIDENT IN 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM 
OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 14N. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W/90W S OF 
19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC 
REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N15W 8N30W 9N44W 8N53W 9N58W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 
NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-278W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 17W-21W...WITHIN 180 NM S 
OF THE ITCZ 34W-47W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
46W-55W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA COVERING 
THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF E OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO 
LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N92W AND 
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. 
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS 
AND S FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE N GULF AND IN THE SE GULF FROM THE 
FLORIDA KEYS TO FORT MYERS E OF 83W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY HAS 
DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 60 
NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 21N E OF 92W AND OVER CUBA MOVING INTO 
THE SE GULF S OF 23N BETWEEN 83W-87W. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS 
IN THE E GULF NEAR 26N87W. THE W GULF REMAINS REMARKABLY CLEAR 
THIS EVENING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W IS UNDER NE FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE MONA 
PASSAGE TO 16N70W. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVATE 
THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND 
JAMAICA AS WELL AS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 81W-86W INCLUDING 
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT 
DEVELOPED OVER CUBA ARE GIVING THE AREA N OF 19N W OF 75W TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE 
TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL 
SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS SE INTO THE W ATLC 
ALONG 31N81W TO 22N71W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS JUST TO THE N 
OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE 
REGION NEAR 32N61W SW ALONG 28N68W TO 28N73W BECOMING STATIONARY 
NW TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA NEAR SAVANNAH GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT 
E OF 68W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-31N W OF 74W TO THE COAST OF 
FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING 
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N62W SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE 
MONA PASSAGE SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ON THE E SIDE EXTENDING 
FROM 27N58W TO 20N62W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS E WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 
NEAR 19N63W ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BEYOND 32N54W. A BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ALL 
OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH JUST SW OF THE 
AZORES THROUGH 32N42W TO 22N56W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE E ATLC 
FROM 17N-31N E OF 46W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW