000 AXNT20 KNHC 141737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 13W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 15W-18W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N47W TO 8N42W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS...DEEP CONVECTION IS CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 40W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N70W TO 8N72W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE PREVIOUSLY SPLIT WITH THE NRN PORTION REMAINING STATIONARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH ABSORBED MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LEAVING ONLY MODERATE MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE WWD PROPAGATING WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 66W-71W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO W OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-76W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WRN CUBA NEAR 21N85W ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS TO NEAR 9N88W MOVING W 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND E PACIFIC IN WHICH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED. THE MAIN CYCLONIC TURNING AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC. SEE TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N11W ALONG 8N30W 8N40W 8N50W 9N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS...150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-40W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 44W-54W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 59W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR NRN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 81W-95W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SE CONUS AND FAR NRN GULF NEAR THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE THAT ARE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN ALABAMA WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN FURTHER SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CENTERED JUST N OF SRN MEXICO NEAR 19N92W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY AIR WRAPPED AROUND IT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS BEING PRODUCING BESIDES A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 30 NM INLAND OF THE WRN COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N-24N. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND PUSH SWD ACROSS FLORIDA AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFT S. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S OF WRN CUBA ACROSS HONDURAS TO THE E PACIFIC. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF ERN HISPANIOLA TO WRN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE ISLANDS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 66W-71W WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE AXIS AND N OF VENEZUELA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR 15N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 58W. TRINIDAD HAS ALREADY REPORTED 1.94 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLOODING AS THIS LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVES PAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W ALONG 29N71W 31N81W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM S OF THE FRONT. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN 72W-79W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THESE AREAS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 25N62W ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A BROKEN OFF PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N59W TO 19N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 21N CONTINUING ALONG A LINE TO THE NE OF THE AXIS TO NEAR 31N56W. FARTHER E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL/E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 37N31W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE E ATLC E OF 46W S OF 32N PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 42W-57W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE RIDGE N OF 20N WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE S CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON