000 AXNT20 KNHC 140529 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N44W TO 10N35W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE EXHIBITS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO WEST AFRICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 22N61W TO 16N65W TO 10N66W MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS N OF 15N. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...AND OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 65W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS S OF CUBA ALONG 82W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AS INDICATED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 76W-84W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 7N30W 8N50W 10N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 14N-18N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 21W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... EAST TO WEST SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 96W-100W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 80W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...OVER FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND E GUATEMALA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 87W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 71W-75W. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER W CUBA. OTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 60W-64W. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 65W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE AREA HOWEVER ALONG 32N64W 31N70W TO SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 37N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 32N38W 27N50W 27N80W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND DUST IS N OF 15N E OF 45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE CENTER. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA