000 AXNT20 KNHC 121740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N32W TO 6N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED FARTHER W THAN PREVIOUS MOTION WOULD SUGGEST BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS...CONVECTION IS CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 24W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N55W TO 14N60W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 58W-59W...AND FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 54W-58W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 20N68W TO 15N72W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN WHICH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS S OF HISPANIOLA WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 70W-73W. RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ALSO INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND FROM 16N-21N W OF 63W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N11W 7N26W 6N40W 7N52W 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 11W-15W...AND N OF THE AXIS NEAR GUINEA BISSAU FROM 11N-13N E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 30-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RADAR IMAGERY FROM SLIDELL LOUISIANA INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS LOCATED NEAR 30N90W ABOUT 30 NM E OF NEW ORLEANS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW CENTER...AS OF 1500 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINE THE ENTIRE NRN GULF COAST FROM 27N-31N. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LOW CENTER SHOULD MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE WRN GULF CENTERED OVER THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS NEAR 26N97W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER ERN GEORGIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATELY DRY AIR ACROSS THE SE GULF KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR WITH CLEAR SKIES. SLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE DRIFT FARTHER INLAND WHILE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM WRN CUBA NEAR 24N84W TO S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W ACROSS ERN CUBA TO NEAR 18N75W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 73W-77W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE NICARAGUAN COAST ALONG 83W FROM 11N-14N. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS SRN COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 10N. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE ISLAND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 70W-73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL WAVE TO E OF THE ISLANDS MOVES NW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS ACROSS ERN CUBA ALONG 25N77W TO 18N75W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N66W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN GEORGIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 28N59W SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 24N61W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N47W TO 26N54W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 46W-50W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS. FARTHER E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA E OF 30W S OF 35N SUPPORTING STABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE RIDGE N OF 20N WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON